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Florida Lake Management Society Annual Conference, Naples, Florida, June 4 – 7, 2007

flows were consistent with AMO phases. It was concluded that flow decreases and increases in the northern part of the state and flow increases and decreases in peninsular Florida are consistent with AMO warm and cool phases and the reported relationship with rainfall. For example, when rivers in peninsular Florida were in a multidecadal period of higher flows (1940 to 1969), rivers in the north to northwestern part of the state were in a low flow period. Conversely rivers in peninsular Florida exhibited generally lower flows (1970 to 1994) when rivers in the northern portion of the state exhibited higher flows.

Relatively large decreases and increases in flow are attributable to rainfall differences between multidecadal periods. For example, differences in flow volumes between multidecadal periods averaged 30% in SRP rivers. These results challenge the often held assumption that rainfall and hence river flows are the consequence of a sequence of totally random events, and suggest that those involved with water management (e.g., lake management, water supply development and flood protection) may need to rethink their paradigm with respect to river flow analysis and allow for multidecadal variations in river flow volumes.

References

Basso, R. and R. Schultz. (2003). Long-term variation in rainfall and its effect on Peace River flow in West-Central Florida. Hydrologic Evaluation Section. Southwest Florida Water Management District. Brooksville, FL. 33 pp.

Enfield, D., A. Mestas-Nunez, and P. Trimble. (2001). The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 28(10): 2077-2080.

Kelly, M. (2004). Florida River Flow Patterns and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Ecologic Evaluation Section. Southwest Florida Water Management District.

Brooksville, FL. 80 pp. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

NOTES

Session 9 – Page 8

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