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US vs Iran

Hybrid War

United States’ air force has the ability to establish air superiority over Iran, but it is unclear how long this will take. As soon as the air campaign gets underway, a sea campaign will follow. US knows very well that it can not allow the Iranians to close the Persian Gulf, so it has to neutralise Iranian navy as well. Again, the US navy has the ability to neutralise the conventional Iranian navy relatively quickly but dealing with the IRGC navy is another matter. On paper it seems that these kinds of air and sea attacks will not require an invasion of Iranian mainland and therefore relatively low risk. It of course assumes that Iran will just mount a static defence and nothing else. Just like the Israel’s attack on Lebanon, US hopes that by smashing all the infrastructure, the Iranians will blame their own government and remove the regime themselves. And if that doesn’t happen, at least Iran would be set back by 10 to 20 years. This may be correct, but one should also note that the history of the 20th century is replete with military blunders caused by faulty intelligence and incorrect assumption. It would be a folly to underestimate Iranians’ preparedness, armaments, training - and their fanatical determination to fight to the death. It seems that Iranians, for some time now, have been preparing themselves for an eventual attack by the US.

“Iran's Revolutionary Guards are making preparations for a massive assault on U.S. naval forces and international shipping in the Persian Gulf, according to a former Iranian intelligence officer who defected to the West in 2001. The plans, which include the use of bottom-tethered mines potentially capable of destroying U.S. aircraft carriers, were designed to counter a U.S. land invasion and to close the Strait of Hormuz, the defector said in a phone interview from his home in Europe. They would also be triggered if the United States or Israel launched a pre- emptive strike on Iran to knock out nuclear and missile facilities. "The plan is to stop trade," the source said. Between 15 and 16.5 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz each day, roughly 20 percent of the world's daily oil production, according to the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration.”[20]

Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar

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