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What’s Hard about complex “C2”  Research Challenges Networked Causality, ... - page 4 / 9

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Causality, Predictability, and Influencability of Complex Systems and CAS

have to give up 100% predictability and control

but we can still have influence and some predictability

predictability depends on what we ask for

precision of effect we require

selectivity of which effects we focus on

time horizon for prediction

confidence of prediction

direction of prediction in time

forwards = what happens next?

backwards = what must have happened?

sideways = what else must be happening now?

random            complexclassical mechanics

0predictability100

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