Observe/measure actual consequences
Model causal & influence network.
Observe/measure contingent factors.
Predict some consequences
use model to predict, test, refine
But a CAS may co-adapt and change in response
… unless you know its adaptive mechanisms!!
eg through harnessing and tweaking existing
adaptive mechanisms, not nec. via prediction.
Don’t need to model the detail and predict !!!
For simple causality:
and predict effect
Press the button
and control the effect
Influence = targetted intervention that increases prob of preferred outcome
If we can not only observe, but also intervene… then we can probe, seek to influence, …