X hits on this document

Powerpoint document

What’s Hard about complex “C2”  Research Challenges Networked Causality, ... - page 5 / 9

22 views

0 shares

0 downloads

0 comments

5 / 9

Observe/measure actual consequences

Revise model

Iterate

Model causal &   influence network.

Observe/measure contingent factors.

Predict some  consequences

probing actions

use model to predict, test, refine

Iterate

But a CAS may co-adapt and change in response

limited predictability

… unless you know its adaptive mechanisms!!

eg through harnessing and tweaking existing

adaptive mechanisms, not nec. via prediction.

Don’t need to model the detail and predict !!!

For simple causality:

Observe cause

 and predict effect

or

Press the button

and control the effect

Influence = targetted intervention that increases prob of preferred outcome

If we can not only observe, but also intervene… then we can probe, seek to influence, …

Predictability and Influencability

Predictability requires knowing how system behaves Influencability requires knowing how system adapts

Document info
Document views22
Page views22
Page last viewedMon Dec 05 16:56:49 UTC 2016
Pages9
Paragraphs191
Words870

Comments