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AON BENFIELD

USDmn Amlin

SHF at 31/12/2009

Chile & Xynthia Combined Loss Estimate

Combined Loss as % SHF

Comments

2,569

154

6.0%

Net catastrophe excess of loss of USD142mn - USD165mn, based on market loss of USD3.9bn - USD7.7bn

Beazley

986

65

6.6%

Net loss in the range of USD55mn - USD75mn. Does not expect Xynthia to have a material impact on the group's results

Brit

1,425

71

5.0%

Pre-tax, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums. Based on market loss of USD6bn

Catlin

3,278

150

4.6%

Net of reinsurance and reinstatements. Xynthia loss expected to be less than USD10mn

Chaucer

504

39

7.6%

Net loss, combined Chile & Xynthia loss GBP25mn, limited exposure to Xynthia

Hardy

242

33

13.6%

Net loss estimate in the range of USD27.5mn - USD37.5mn

Hiscox Omega

1,785 496

152 23

8.5% 4.6%

Net loss

Net loss. Based on market estimate of USD5.5bn - USD8.5bn

1Q 2010 Catastrophe Losses

To date, eight of the nine ILVs have reported estimated losses from 1Q 2010 catastrophes, as summarized in Table 7. The combined estimated loss for the ILVs from the Chilean earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia is currently USD687mn, or 6.1% of 2009 shareholders’ funds. This stands in comparison to a combined estimate of 2.9% of total shareholders’ funds for all major reinsurers who have announced loss estimates to date. Substantially all of the loss estimates announced by the ILVs are related to the Chilean earthquake, with little or no exposure reported to Windstorm Xynthia. Assuming an industry loss estimate of USD10bn for the Chilean earthquakes, and applying a 10% share as a guideline for Lloyd’s share of an industry loss of this nature, then discounting this figure by 50% for reinsurance recoveries, suggests a maximum loss of GBP500mn for Lloyd’s, or 2.8% of its capital base.

Table 7 – 1Q Catastrophe Losses for the ILVs

Source: Company announcements, Aon Benfield Research

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