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J1

y12

w j y j 2 ,

j2

where wj are nonnegative weights that add up to one. How to choose the weights to best estimate the intervention effect? ADH propose choosing the weights so as to minimize the distance between y11, x1and

J1 j 2

wj  yj1, xj, say. That is, functions of the

pre-treatment outcomes and the predictors of post-treatment outcomes. ADH propose permutation methods for inference, which require estimating a placebo treatment effect for each region, using the same synthetic control method as for the region that underwent the intervention.

31

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