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Figure 3. Data and predicted values from the model

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Model prediction

Data

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1980:4 1983:1 1985:3 1988:1 1990:3 1993:1 1995:3 1998:1 2000:3 2003:1

Home(US) Output

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1980:4 1983:1 1985:3 1988:1 1990:3 1993:1 1995:3 1998:1 2000:3 2003:1 Home(US) Investment

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1980:4 1983:1 1985:3 1988:1 1990:3 1993:1 1995:3 1998:1 2000:3 2003:1 Foreign(Mex) Consumption

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1980:4 1983:1 1985:1 1988:1 1990:3 1993:1 1995:3 1998:1 2000:3 2003:1 Home(US) Consumption

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1980:4 1983:1 1985:3 1988:1 1990:3 1993:1 1995:3 1998:1 2000:3 2003: Foreign(Mex) Output

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1980:4 1983:1 1985:1 1988:1 1990:3 1993:1 1995:3 1998:1 2000:3 2003:1 Border Enforcement (hours)

Note: Data (solid line) and benchmark model’s Kalman filtered one-sided predicted values (dashed line). Variables are transformed in Δln, and thus measured in growth rates.

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