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# Figure 4. Autocovariance functions

Home/US output(t)

Foreign/Mex output (t)

Migration/Appreh.(t)

Border Enforcement (t)

x 10-4

3

## 3

2

2

1

1

• 0

0

• -

1

3

2

1

0

• -

1

10

5

0

0

x 10-4

0

x 10-4

1

1

2

3

4

2

3

4

• -

1

10

5

0

• -

5

1

0

• -

1

• -

2

0

x 10-4

0

x 10-3

1

1

2

2

3

3

• -

5

• -

3

0

x 10-4

1

2

3

4

• 0

1

x 10-4

2

3

2

5

0

0

• -

2

• -

4

• 0

1 23

Home/US output(t-h)

4

• -

5

• 0

1 23 Foreign/Mex Output (t-h)

4

4

4

4

x 10-3

1

0.5

0

• -

0.5

• -

1

0

1

2

3

x 10-3

2

0

• -

2

• -

4

0

1

2

3

0.04

0.02

0

• -

0.02

• 0

1

x 10-3

2

3

5

0

• -

5

• -

10

0

123 Migration Flows/Appreh.(t-h)

4

4

4

4

x 10-4

4

2

0

• -

2

• -

4

0

1

2

3

x 10-4

5

0

• -

5

0

1

2

3

x 10-3

5

0

• -

5

• -

10

• 0

1 x 10-3

6

4

2

0

2

3

• -

2

• 0

123

Border Enforcement (t-h)

4

4

4

4

h=0, 1...., 5.

Note: The vector auto-covariance function is computed by estimating an unrestricted VAR (1) model with an uninformative prior for the variables plotted. The thin solid line refers to the median vector auto-covariance function along with the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles (dotted lines). The tick solid line refers to the actual data.

0.03

0

0.06

0

0.02

-0.005

0.04

-0.5

# Figure 5. Impulse response to a an increase in border enforcement

0.01

0.02

x 10-3

0

5

0

• -

5

• -

10

2

0

• -

2

0

10 20

x 10-3

Foreing Output (Y(F))

0 S t o c k 10 20 o f i m m i g r a n t s ( L i ) x 1 0 - 3

30

30

• -

0.01

0.4

0.2

0

0.1

0

0

0

10 20 Foreign Consumption (C*)

30

0 0 10 20 30

-1

Remittances per unit of migrant labor

0.4

0

0.2

-0.01

• 0

10 20

Immigrant entry (Le)

30

0

0 10 20 30

0

Immigrant/unskilled wage (wi/wu)

10 20 Capital in Foreign (K*)

30

• -

0.02

0.5

0

10 20 Wage in foreign (w*)

30

• -

0.02

0

• -

4

• 0

10 20 Total Remittances

30

• -

0.1

0

10 20 Home Output (Y(H))

30

• -

0.04

0

10 20 Home Consumption (C)

30

• -

0.5

• 0

10 20 Capital in Home (K)

30

Note: The solid line is the median impulse response to a border enforcement shock (one standard deviation). The dashed lines are the 10 and 90 percent posterior intervals.

36

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