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Figure 8. Forecast error variance decompositions

Q1

Q4

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

Y(H) Y(F) Technology (H)

C Demand (H)

I

C* Technology (F)

I*

Enforc. Demand (F)

Rem.

Emigr. Border enf.

Y(H) Y(F) Technology (H)

C Demand (H)

I

C* Technology (F)

I*

Enforc. Demand (F)

Rem.

Emigr. Border enf.

Q16

Q40

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

Y(H) Y(F) Technology (H)

C Demand (H)

I

C* Technology (F)

I*

Enforc. Demand (F)

Rem.

Emigr. Border enf.

Y(H) Y(F) Technology (H)

C Demand (H)

I

C* Technology (F)

I*

Enforc. Demand (F)

Rem.

Emigr. Border enf.

Note: Forecast variance decomposition at the posterior mode. We include the seven observables in the measurement set, remittances and migration flows. Forecast horizons: Q1, Q4, Q16 and Q40. Technology shocks include both neutral and investment-specific shocks.

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