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Figure A1. Prior and posterior distributions

Std Dev Neutral Tech Shock (Home)

Std Dev Neutral Tech Shock (Foreign)

800

300

600

200

400

100

200

0

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Std Dev Inv Tech Shock (Home)

Std Dev Neutral Preference Shock (Foreign)

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

Std Dev Inv Border Enforcement Shock

gamma (Share of Unskilled in Output)

150

50

40

100

30

20

50

10

0

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

eta-Elast. Subs. (K, Skilled)

zeta-Product. Native Skilled

40

30

20

10

0

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

4

6

8

10

12

psi-Inv Elasticity Labor

mu-Goods Elast of Substitution

2

1.5

1.5

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Persistence Neutral Technology shock(H)

Persistence Neutral Technology shock(F)

15

10

5

10 8 6 4 2

0 0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

50

150

100

50

0

150

100

50

0

30

20

10

0

1.5

1

0.5

0

4

3

2

1

0

10 8

6 4

2

0

Std Dev Neutral Preference Shock (Home)

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Std Dev Inv Tech Shock (Foreign)

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

theta (Elast. Subs, K, Unskilled)

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

fe-Migration Sunk Cost Level

3

4

5

6

7

phi-Elast of Remittances

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Persistence Preference shock(H)

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

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