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Direct Solar Energy

Chapter 3

Table 3.5 | IEA price forecasts for 2020 and 2050. The ranges are given for 2,000 kWh/ kWp and 1,000 kWh/kWp (IEA, 2010c).

limited available performance data for the thermal storage state should be noted.

p Energy yields (kWh/kW )

2000

1000

2000

1000

Equivalent Capacity Factor

22.8%

11.4%

22.8%

11.4%

Residential PV

14.5

28.6

5.9

12.2

Utility-scale PV

9.5

19.0

4.1

8.2

15 hours of storage, giving a 75% annual capacity factor, are under construction.

2020 (US cents2005

)

2050 (US cents2005

)

For large, state-of-the-art trough plants, current investment costs are

reported as USD2005

3.82/W (without storage) to USD2005

7.65/W (with

storage) depending on labour and land costs, technologies, the amount and distribution of direct-normal irradiance and, above all, the amount of storage and the size of the solar field (IEA, 2010b). Storage increases the investment costs due to the storage itself, as well as the additional collector area needed to charge the storage. But it also improves the ability to dispatch electricity at times of peak tariffs in the market or when balancing power is needed. Thus, a strategic approach to storage can improve a project’s internal rate of return.

Because, other than the SEGS plants, new CSP plants only became operational from 2007 onwards, few actual performance data are avail- able. For the SEGS plants, capacity factors of between 12.5 and 28% are reported (Sharma, 2011).The predicted yearly average capacity factor of a number of European CSP plants in operation or close to completion of construction is given as 22 to 29% without thermal storage and 27 to 75% with thermal storage (Arce et al., 2011). These numbers are well in line with the capacity figures given in the IEA CSP Roadmap (IEA, 2010b) and the US Solar Vision Study (US DOE, 2011). However, the

The IEA (2010b) estimates LCOEs for large solar troughs in 2009 to range from USD2005 0.18 to 0.27/kWh for systems with different amounts of thermal storage and for different levels of solar irradiation. This is broadly in line with the range of LCOEs derived for a system with six hours of storage at a 10% discount rate (as applied by the IEA), although the full range of values derived for different discount rates is broader (see Annex III). Based on the data and assumptions provided in Annex III of this report, and the methods specified in Annex II, the following two

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

40-55%

28-37%-

50-65%

45-60%

Points

Cost and Efficiency Improvements

100%

18-22% Points

Economies of Scale

  • Economies of Scale

  • Implementation of Major Technological Improvements

5-30%

70-95%

35-50%

10-15% Points

40-55% Points

21-33% Points

45%-60%

50%

40%

Estimated Tariff

Main Drivers

Reductions

for Tariff

Reduction

2025

2012

2015

Validated Proven Improvement Measures

2020

Conservative Outlook

1st Large Scale Plants 1)

Cost

Efficiency

Cost & Efficiency Improvements

Economies of Scale

LCOE 2025

Figure 3.20 | Expected cost decline for CSP plants from 2012 to 2025.The cost number includes the cost of the plant plus financing (A.T. Kearney, 2010).As reduction ranges for cost, efficiency and economies of scale in the right panel overlap, their total contribution in 2025 amounts to less than their overall total.

Note: General. Tariffs equal the minimum required tariff, and are compared to 2012 tariffs. 1. Referring to 2010 to 2013 according to planned commercialization date of each technol- ogy (reference plant).

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