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Direct Solar Energy

Chapter 3

(a) Global Solar Primary Energy Supply

(b) Global Solar Thermal Heat Generation

Global Solar Primary Energy Supply [EJ/yr]

150

100

50

CO2 Concentration Levels

Baselines Cat. III + IV (440−600 ppm) Cat. I + II (<440 ppm)

N=156

Global Solar Thermal Heat Generation [EJ/yr]

60

50

40

30

20

N=44

10

0

0

2020

2030

2050

2020

2030

2050

(c) Global Solar PV Electricity Generation

(d) Global CSP Electricity Generation

Global Solar PV Electricity Generation [EJ/yr]

100

80

60

40

N=123

Global CSP Electricity Generation [EJ/yr]

60

50

40

30

20

N=59

20

10

0

0

2020

2030

2050

2020

2030

2050

Figure 3.22 | Global solar energy supply and generation in long-term scenarios (median, 25th to 75th percentile range, and full range of scenario results; colour coding is based on categories of atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100; the specific number of scenarios underlying the figure is indicated in the right upper corner): (a) Global solar primary energy supply; (b) global solar thermal heat generation; (c) global PV electricity generation; and (d) Global CSP electricity generation (adapted from Krey and Clarke, 2011; see also Chapter 10).

a very wide range of assumptions about the future development of solar technologies in the reviewed scenarios. In the majority of base- line scenarios the solar deployment remains low until 2030, with the 75th percentile reaching some 3 EJ/yr and only very few scenarios showing significantly higher levels. By 2050, this relatively narrow deployment range in the baselines disappears; the 75th percentile

shows roughly a 30-fold increase compared to the median baseline case, reaching about 15 EJ/yr and even much higher levels in the uppermost quartile. A combination of increasing relative prices of fossil fuels with more optimistic assumptions about cost declines for solar technologies is likely to be responsible for the higher baseline deployment levels.

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