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and is in line with pre-recession levels.  Here’s a look at monthly unemployment rates from 1993 to current.  And you can see that Nevada, it tracts pretty well with the United States over most of this time frame until about 2001, when our unemployment rates spiked and then quickly declined since then.  They have remained below California and United States for the last four years or so until just recently.  They seem to be coming more in line with each other.  In between 4.5% and 5%.  Here’s also a look at job growth rates.  This is broken out by metropolitan statistical areas.  You can see, again, you can note the business cycle where job growth rates declined and bottomed out in 2001.  Reno and Carson City actually had the low growth, actually lost jobs.  Since then, employment growth has rebounded in each of our metro areas.  Here’s a look at the 2005 Nevada Industrial Distribution and you can see that our largest industry is leisure and hospitality.  Over the last few years as our economy diversifies, a number of other industries are gaining a larger piece of this pie.  That would include, particularly, professional business services, financial activity, construction, manufacturing to a lesser extent, government, so forth.  Here are the largest occupations in Nevada for 2006.  They’re related to our largest industries again and you can see pretty much I think you’d expect to see.  We have cashier’s, waiters and waitresses, you know, they’re related to the retail industries and the restaurant industries.  You can also see on there construction.  We have registered nurses, carpenters, gaming dealers.  So a lot of our largest occupations are closely related to our large industries.  Here’s a look at the fastest growing jobs in Nevada based on average annual growth rate.  And you can see a lot of these jobs are pretty high skilled jobs and pretty good paying.  So we have some growth in some good areas.  Network systems and data communication analysts.  So quite a few of these jobs are related to computer and technical industry, health care, education.  Here’s a look at Nevada unemployment rates for a 10-year period.  From 1998 through 2008.  Again, you can note the business cycle by looking at our unemployment rates.  Where unemployment has an inverse relationship to the economy.  As the economy goes down, our unemployment rates go up.  And they topped out in 2002 at about 5.7% and have fallen since then to a, I think that’s a historically low, 4.1%.  We are expecting to see unemployment rates climb a little bit over the next few years.  Here’s a similar slide that shows employment growth rates for industrial employment.  Again, you can note the business cycle and where growth rates have reached pre-recessionary levels.  We are predicting a slight decrease in employment growth rates as our employment gets larger, we don’t expect to see the growth rates stay so high.  And also, we’ve just been creating jobs so fast that we’re still going to have really strong growth, it just won’t be growing as fast as it has been.  That’s all I have for my economic overview.  If there’s any questions on that?

Chair:Go ahead, Rick, please.

Wilkening:I just have one question.  I’m looking at the Nevada unemployment rates and you indicate that you believe it’s going to be going higher in 2007 and 2008 and I’m just curious what gives you that direction?

McDonald:I would say because our unemployment rate is so low.  4.1 is below equilibrium

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