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would have dropped to roughly .65, a 17% loss.  The federal payment helped sustain the fund at levels comparable to recent history.  Lastly, given the current tax rate from the graph, you can see that based on the average high cost multiple, the trust fund will return to pre-recession level during the next year.  As a final tool for examining the fund balance financing for next year, we are providing a view of what the fund might look like in ten years.  Ten years is a long time and such forecasts by their nature provide only a foggy picture of what the future could hold.  But it provides you with an idea of how current decisions would affect the fund with a moderate decline in employment growth rates and a slight increase in unemployment from the historically low levels we have recently experienced.  In addition, this analysis does not introduce any future recessions into the forecast.  Rather, forecasts are based solely on the long-term growth of the fund.  This would represent an unprecedented period of continuous economic growth but it operates as a tool for seeing a long-term trend this way.  The state solvency figures for all tax areas are well above the minimum and the average high cost multiple is shown covering a range of 1.9 to 1.67.  Next I’ll take a look at wild cards and key points. How the UI system will fare in any future scenario, be it one or ten years out is far from certain.  This slide presents some potential wild cards to account for in planning the future of the trust fund.  The housing industry which has enjoyed five years of booming sales and construction activity has been losing steam this year under the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices.  A cooling housing market will affect the employment in the coming year.  To what extent is still uncertain and will be determined by the severity of the downturn and the ripple effect it will have on other industries such as manufacturing, real estate, mortgage and investing related industries.  Growth in the commercial construction industry may be adequate enough to absorb some of the drop related to residential construction.  But at this point, we don’t know exactly how far down the housing industry is going to go.  Another significant variable remains the possibility of a terrorist attack affecting the Nevada economy.  From previous slides in the presentation, we can see the effects one large event had on employment and benefits paid out of the trust fund.  Although such events are beyond our ability to predict, there is need to account for the possibility while planning for the future. Next I would like to discuss our neighbor, California.  What happens in California impacts the nation because of the size of the state, and can affect Nevada more so because of its proximity.  Nevada has benefited from companies that decide to relocate to our comparatively business friendly state and from tourists visiting from the west.  Each has contributed to our record growth and increase in economic diversification.  As you can see from our earlier economic overview, Nevada’s economy is growing.  And we’ll need to continue to monitor the effect this may pose in the years to come.  Lastly, I’d like to review overall growth in Nevada.  With a population that the U.S. Census expects to triple between 2000 and 2030, Nevada is growing very fast.  This brings significant advantages but also requires higher levels of maintenance, both physically and fiscally. The unemployment insurance trust fund must grow in order to keep pace with the potential demand on the system represented by these new employers and covered workers.  Failure

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