The 5% per annum figure could be used as the low/conservative growth scenario. For simplicity, we will pick 7.5% and 10% respectively for the medium/stretch and high/ aggressive growth scenarios. The dollar volume of the HEWA segment is also required in order to complete the forecasts.
If you were to assume that the HEWA sector generated $400 million in sales in 2008, under the low growth scenario, that market would be worth approximately $420 million in 2009.
2009 2010 2011
These projections will offer an overall view of the total HEWA market segment. They also provide direction as to the potential size of the online market for this segment.
Speaking of the online market size for this segment, the second and more crucial fore- cast is the determination of the size of the online HEWA segment.
Using the calculations in Table 1.2 as an example, let’s presume that those calculations represent the “Online Women’s Apparel Market among online Canadians with HHI of $50K+” and that number totals $43.6 million.
To calculate the forecast for the HEWA segment, you will need to develop a number of growth scenarios for the segment. You could apply low, medium and high growth levels based on your company’s prior results or you could look at other players in the high- end market and use those figures as proxies for the levels.
For our purposes, let’s assume the following growth rates for the respective periods, as illustrated in Exhibit B.
Year 2009–2010 2010–2012 2012–2014
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