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Towards a Sustainable Tourism Product for Jamaica: A Dynamic Simulation Modelling Approach

Working Paper

1 Jide Lewis Financial Stability Department Research and Economic Programming Division Bank of Jamaica

September 2007

Abstract

This paper presents a system dynamics-based tourism model, which focuses on the dynamic interdependencies between the hospitality sector and both the labour market and the manufacturing sector. The model incorporates a generic value-chain structure (VCM) that allows modelling of customer-supplier value chain for the tourism sector. Additionally, a work-force structure is incorporated into the analysis to capture the

labour dynamics surrounding integrates several concepts of applicability of the model to the

the hospitality sector.

As

traditional

network-based

such, the model developed approaches to enhance the

Jamaican

tourism

sector.

The

model

adequately

captures

the dynamics of the effects of large but tourism sector between 1990 and 2005. The paper also assesses the plausible shocks to demand for the product and capacity on, among

other things, capacity adjustments and the results of such experimentation are used enhance the sustainability of the sector development of the wider economy.

demand for labour over the medium term. The to make policy oriented recommendations to as well its contribution to the growth and

1

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Bank of Jamaica.

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