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Tourism Arrival Sectors The logistic or Verhulst growth model Eq. 24 helps to replicate the growth pattern of Jamaica’s actual annual tourism. This formulation is capable of capturing the transition from exponential growth to equilibrium.

Annual Tourism (t) = Annual Tourism(t – dt) + (come – go)* dt

(24)

where

Come = growth fraction*Annual Tourism*(1 + step (step height)

Go = (growth fraction/Carrying Capacity)*Annual Tourism^2

Carrying Capacity (t) = Carrying Capacity (t – dt)

(25) (26) (27)

The dynamics of monthly tourist arrivals are modeled in a similar fashion (see Eq. 28). However, it incorporates the important dynamic of tourism seasonality on Jamaica’s tourism product. Jamaica’s foreign visitors and local tourists arrive (Eq 29) according to the seasonality index (Eq. 30), feeding the monthly Tourism Stock (See Eq. 28). After 7.9 days, according to the Annual Travel Statistics, the visitors depart (Eq. 31).

Monthly Tourism (t) = Monthly Tourism (t- dt) + (arrive – depart)*dt

(28)

where

Arrive = Tourism Seasonality*(Annual Tourism)/12

9

Tourism Seasonality = GRAPH(month,1,1,{0.418,0.582,0.887,1.12,1.17,1.14,1.47,1.55,1.29,1.12,0.672,0.571})

Depart = Tourism/average length of stay

(29) (30) (31)

9 This function converts the simulation time (months) to a 12-month metric of time. Thereafter, whenever the simulation indicates a corresponding month between 1(January) and 12 (December) the appropriate seasonality index is operationalized).

10

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