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DATA DESCRIPTION AND SOURCES

The main data source for this paper is obtained from the Jamaica Tourist Board's Annual Travel Statistics 1995 - 2005, which is replete with information on the hotel and accommodation sector. Annual tourist arrivals, bed capacity, and the number of workers in the accommodation sector were obtained from this source between 1990 and 2005. Monthly tourist arrivals between 2000 and 2005 were used to compute a seasonality index for tourist arrivals which was a critical component for computing both the occupancy rates and the monthly revenue for the sector. The seasonality index was constructed by computing the ratio of the arrivals for a given month to the 12-month moving average (MA) arrivals. Thereafter, the 5-year average of those ratios, for the particular month in question, was used to compute the index.5

Occupancy rates were computed as a function of bed nights sold and were given by equation (i)

Occupancy Rates =

Number of Monthly Arrivals (t)*Average Length of Stay Average Number of Beds * 30

(i)

Cross sectional data gleaned from the Annual Travel Statistics included average length of stay per visitor, expenditure per tourist, average bed to tourist ratio and average labour to tourist ratio.

MODEL DESCRIPTION

A system dynamics simulation model highlights the structure underlying the interactions along Jamaica's hotel value chain (VCM). The model incorporates a generic supply-chain structure that allows modelling of customer-supplier value chains predominant in business systems. The supply chain sub-model and the labour supply chain structures are for the most part generic (Sterman 2000, Chapters. 17 & 19). Effective VCM models

5 For example, the January Index = 5 year average {January Arrivals 2000…2005. See Appendix for the computed seasonality index.

Year t/ 12-month MA} where t =

5

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