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must incorporate different agents and firms, including suppliers, hotels, distribution channels and customers (e.g. tourists). System dynamics is well suited for Jamaica's hotel VCM modelling and policy design because the island’s hotel value chain entails multiple chains of stocks and flows, with time lags and delays, and because the decision rules governing the flows create feedback loops among value-chain participants and supply- chain partners.

Jamaica's hotel supply-chain management (SCM) sectors Like all firms, Jamaica's hotels are sets of processes. Their order fulfillment, service delivery, advertising, hiring, firing and pricing are all processes. Each requires inputs acquired from suppliers. A customer-supplier value chain is the structure that acquires the inputs, transforms them into outputs and delivers them to customers. Customers can be external (e.g. tourists) or internal (e.g. hotels) and the inputs and outputs can be tangible (e.g., a jet ski and its parts and raw materials) or intangible (e.g., a concert performance, where the output is a soul-inspired audience).

The supply-chain management (SCM) sector of the tourism industry can be summarized in ten equations, half of which are the decision rules governing the procurement of bedroom capacity for the sector for both the hoteliers and the providers of room capacity.

The supply chain governing the provision of beds for the sector is comprised of the stock of unfulfilled orders for new hotel beds, i.e. orders that have been placed with manufactures but not yet received (Eq. 1). This stock is increased by the accumulation of yet more orders for beds (Eq. 2) and depleted inter-temporally by acquisitions by hoteliers (Eq. 3).

Supply Chain Structure Sector Supply Chain (t) = Supply Chain (t – dt) + (orders – acquisitions)*dt where Orders = MAX (0, adjust SC + desired acquisition) Acquisitions = MAX (0, Supply Chain/ acquisition lag)


(2) (3)


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