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Simulated present distribution (AUC = 0·960; k = 0·711)

Simulated late 21st century distribution (R = 0·61; O = 0·14)

This species breeds where annual temperature sum exceeds ca. 2000 degree days above 5°C and there is at least some slight seasonal moisture deficiency (AET/PET ≤ 0·95). Although it exhibits no general upper or lower coldest month mean temperature limit, the disjunction in its range is reflected by a failure to breed at present where coldest month mean is between ca. –3°C and 2°C.

Although this species’ distribution has contracted markedly in recent times, and it thus is likely not to be occupying fully its potential climatic range at present, the response surface model has a ‘very good’ fit. Its main deficiency is incorrectly simulating occurrences in Greece and parts of Italy where the species has been extinct since the mid 20th century. The simulated future potential distribution is shifted northwards, much reduced in extent and strongly fragmented. Suitable localities are simulated in

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