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Simulated present distribution (AUC = 0·978; k = 0·727)

Simulated late 21st century distribution (R = 1·65; O = 0·00)

This species has a climatically as well as geographically restricted breeding range. It breeds principally where seasonal moisture deficit is marked (AET/PET ≈ 0·5), annual temperature sum is more than ca. 3200 degree days above 5°C, and coldest month mean temperature is at least ca. 5°C.

The response surface model has a ‘very good’ fit; its only obvious deficiency is the simulation of a small number of scattered breeding localities in areas of eastern Spain, Italy and Greece where the species is absent. The simulated future potential breeding range, although increased substantially in extent, has no overlap with the present range. It is shifted northwards in Iberia, where a small number of localities are simulated as suitable. The majority of areas simulated as suitable, however, are remote from the species’ present range, being scattered eastwards from southern France through Italy

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