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however, extends to ca. 2500 degree days.

The response surface model has a ‘very good’ fit. Discrepancies include failure to simulate breeding localities in the Pyrenees and Rhodope Mountains, too few simulated occurrences in the Cantabrians, and simulated occurrences slightly too far north in Fennoscandia and Russia. Simulated occurrences in Transcaucasia are also incorrect, falling outside the breeding range mapped by BWP. The simulated future potential distribution is contracted markedly in the south. The slight simulated extension in the north, to parts of Iceland, Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, only compensates in small part for the potential losses of range in the south.

Lagópodo alpino (Lagopus mutus), Ptarmigan

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