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west India. The species’ preferred habitat is uncultivated land and dry scrubby areas including desert fringes and steppes. Crags are used for nesting, although tall trees are also used if they are available. A fairly versatile feeder, its diet comprises mainly small mammals, reptiles and large insects. The species is a summer visitor to the European part of its range, migrating to winter around the eastern Mediterranean, in Turkey or, in smaller numbers, in sub-Saharan east Africa.

Simulated present distribution (AUC = 0·934; k = 0·712)

Simulated late 21st century distribution (R = 2·36; O = 0·31)

The climatic response surface reflects the association of the species’ breeding range with dry regions, showing it to be present only where AET/PET ≤ 0·7. Although the species breeds across a wide range of coldest month mean temperature (ca. –8°C to 10°C) and annual temperature sum (ca. 2300 to 5000 degree days above 5°C), its limits with respect to both vary systematically with AET/PET. It has its narrowest range with

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