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respect to coldest month mean (ca. –1°C to 2°C), and reaches its annual temperature sum lower limit, at the moist extremity of its range; its range with respect to coldest month mean, and the range of annual temperature sum that it occupies, both tend to increase toward the dry extremity of its range.

The response surface model has a ‘very good’ fit; minor discrepancies include incorrectly simulated occurrences in Crimea and south-east coastal Spain. The simulated future potential distribution, although very fragmented, is of much greater extent and expanded north-westwards.

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