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TABLE VI CONTRIBUTION OF POLICY CHANGES TO THE CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE EMPLOYMENT OF SINGLE MOTHERS VERSUS SINGLE WOMEN WITHOUT CHILDREN, 1984 –1996 AND 1992–1996

1992–1996

1984–1996

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

March CPS

% of total

in emp

35.1% 11.4% 3.8% 2.0% 1.2% 8.4% 8.5% 11.4% 19.8% 2.3% 6.4% 1.5% 5.6% 12.9% 18.2%

0.0305 0.0099 0.0033 0.0017 0.0011 0.0073 0.0073 0.0099 0.0172 0.0020 0.0056 0.0013 0.0039 0.0112 0.0158

100.0%

0.0869

% of total

26.8% 16.5% 6.5% 2.9% 3.3% 9.6% 7.6% 6.6% 14.2% 3.0% 6.8% 1.8% 5.7% 15.5% 28.3% 100.0%

ORG

in emp

0.0186 0.0114 0.0045 0.0020 0.0023 0.0066 0.0052 0.0046 0.0098 0.0021 0.0047 0.0011 0.0039 0.0107 0.0196 0.0691

March CPS

% of total

in emp

61.4% 13.3% 0.3% 0.1% 2.8% 10.6% 6.4% 8.4% 14.8% 8.2% 6.5% 5.9% 4.3% 5.8% 14.7%

0.0720 0.0156 0.0003 0.0002 0.0032 0.0125 0.0075 0.0099 0.0174 0.0096 0.0077 0.0069 0.0050 0.0068 0.0172

100.0%

0.1174

% of total

62.2% 25.4% 0.7% 0.3% 9.9% 15.9% 7.6% 6.5% 14.1% 14.4% 9.2% 9.7% 4.6% 10.4% 13.7% 100.0%

ORG

in emp

0.0438 0.0179 0.0005 0.0002 0.0070 0.0112 0.0054 0.0046 0.0099 0.0101 0.0065 0.0068 0.0032 0.0073 0.0096 0.0705

Explanatory variable

Income taxes if work Welfare maximum benet Welfare benet if work Probability of AFDC receipt if work Medicaid if work Total welfare benets & Medicaid Waiver—any time limit Waiver—any terminations Total welfare waivers Training—education Training—job search/other Child care Total training & child care Demographics Other Total

Sources. The data are from the 1984–1996 Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group File (ORG) and the 1985–1997 March Current Population Survey (March CPS).

in emp gives the change in the employment of single mothers (relative to single women without children) over the specied time period that is due to the given

Notes.

explanatory variable(s). % of total gives the percentage of the employment increase for single mothers (relative to single women without children) explained by the given explanatory variable(s). The relative employment increases are the average derivative estimates of the interactions in a weighted probit model including year indicators and their interactions with an any children indicator. The parameter estimates used to estimate the change in employment come from specications (1) and (5) of Table IV, while the change over time in

the policy variables comes from Appendix 2.

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