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Development of Supply and Demand Functions of Pakistan’s Wheat Crop

97

We can further condense the equation by replacing the average values of variable Sw.

Is = 389.5862 + 4.7556Pw

(8d)

Final Easy-to-Use Model

What has been computed and presented in equations (4) through (8) represents a full model of Pakistan’s wheat crop sector. This model provides two equations for both the domestic wheat supply (4b and 4c) and domestic demand (5a and 5b). It further consists of one equation each for wheat import demand (6c) and wheat import price as it influenced by the world wheat price (7), and three equations for wheat export supply to Pakistan (8b-d). Table-3 presents a summarized version of this easy-to-use model of Pakistan’s wheat supply and demand functions.

5. Conclusion and Recommendations

Conclusion

It appears that Pakistan’s domestic wheat supply is not only price- responsive but also positively affected by the use of nutrient fertilizers. Policymakers need to take note of these factors.

While price appears to be a statistically significant factor on the supply side, it is a statistically insignificant factor on the demand side, while population size appears to be very significant in determining the total demand for wheat in Pakistan. These results portray the ground realities of Pakistan where wheat constitutes an essential sizeable proportion of the average person’s daily diet.

Wheat import supply to Pakistan seems to be influenced by the current world wheat price, current world wheat supplies, domestic previous years’ consumption, and domestic previous years’ supply. The first three variables positively affect wheat import supply to Pakistan, while the last variable negatively affects it.

Recommendations

On one hand, Pakistani wheat growers are found to respond positively to wheat prices, while on the other hand, the incoming WTO regime has asked the government to abandon the announcement of support prices. It is therefore recommended that public and private sector policymakers formulate a policy that allows market forces to play a role in the wheat

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