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Muhammad Zulfiqar and Anwar F. Chishti

economy such that the wheat producers do not suffer due to adverse market conditions.

Besides price, the use of nutrient fertilizers seems to play a positive role in determining wheat supply. Therefore, the supply of various nutrient fertilizers, their availability at appropriate times and easy-to-reach places and their use on crops in recommended amounts should be major measures under the government’s future inputs use policy.

It is further recommended that policymakers and researchers work on other food alternatives so that Pakistan’s dependence on wheat is eased as far as possible.

Table-1: Definitions of Variables and their Mean Values

Name of Variable

Mean Value

A = area under wheat in ‘000’ hectares  = area predicted in ‘000’ hectares At-1= lagged area in ‘000’ hectares Sd = domestic supply in ‘000’ tons Sd,t-1 = lagged domestic supply in ‘000’ tons Dd = domestic demand in ‘000’ tons Dd,t-1 lagged domestic demand in ‘000’ tons Sw = world supply of wheat in ‘000’ tons Is= Net import in ‘000’ tons Pd = domestic price in Pak. Rupees per m. ton. Pi = Pakistan level trade price per ton in US$ Pw =world level trade price per ton in US$

7837.60 7837.60 7774.00 15512.00 15099.00 16667.00 16269.00 547170.00 1154.60 4879.20 169.82 160.95

FNTWT, nutrient-fertilizers used in wheat in ‘000’ tons POT = population of Pakistan in millions TR= trend variable for the years of observations included

992.82 118.66

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