area from southern Virginia northward to New York. The insured property damage reported by the Property Claim Services Division of the American Insurance Services Group, the Insurance Services Office, Inc. to- tals $1.685 billion to $925 million in Virginia, $410 mil- lion in Maryland, $170 million in North Carolina, $80 million in Pennsylvania, $45 million in New York, $25 million in New Jersey, $20 million in Delaware, and $10 million in West Virginia. The total damage for Isabel is estimated to be about twice that of the insured damage, or $3.37 billion.
A hurricane watch was issued for the landfall area 50 h before the center made landfall. A hurricane warning was issued 38 h before landfall.
j. Hurricane Juan, 24–29 September
Juan made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia, as a category-2 hurricane and is one of the most damaging tropical cyclones in modern history for Halifax.
1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY
Juan’s origin was a large tropical wave that crossed the coast of Africa on 14 September and continued westward over the tropical Atlantic. On 20 September, the shower activity increased significantly but remained disorganized. By then, the wave was located about 600 n mi east of the Lesser Antilles and was interacting with a large upper-level low. This low was associated with the outflow of powerful Hurricane Isabel, then located well to the northwest, and partly associated with the midoceanic upper-level trough. The wave spawned a middle-level circulation that moved northwestward away from the Lesser Antilles around the upper low and then interacted with a frontal zone. A low-level circulation developed on 23 September, but it took an- other day to make the transition to a tropical cyclone, when the deep convection increased near the center and banding and outflow features developed. It is esti- mated that a tropical depression formed at 1200 UTC 24 September, about 300 n mi southeast of Bermuda. The cyclone became a tropical storm 12 h later, and then developed an eye and became a hurricane by 1200 UTC 26 September.
Juan moved toward the north and northwest as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone briefly expanded westward. The cyclone gradually intensified and reached its maximum intensity of 90 kt, with a minimum pressure of 969 mb, at 1800 UTC 27 Septem- ber. Figure 5 is a satellite view of Juan with 90-kt winds
on 28 September. Juan then turned northward again with an increase in forward speed, and made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia, between Prospect and Peg- gy’s Cove around 0300 UTC 29 September with esti- mated 1-min winds of 85 kt and a minimum pressure of 973 mb. The cyclone crossed Nova Scotia as a weaken- ing hurricane and became a tropical storm over Prince Edward Island. It then merged with a large extratropi- cal low by 1800 UTC 29 September in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS
The estimate that Juan made the transition from a surface low in a frontal zone to a tropical cyclone is partially based on Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit data showing a weak warm core at mid- to upper levels of the cyclone. The timing of when Juan became a tropical storm is based on a quick scatterometer (QuikSCAT) pass at 0925 UTC 25 September showing winds between 40 and 45 kt. In addition, as the devel- oping center passed near the drifting buoy 41537, the surface pressure dropped to 992.6 mb at 2000 UTC. Juan was upgraded to hurricane status on 26 September based on the appearance of an eye on visible and in- frared satellite imagery.
The center of Juan passed over a Canadian buoy (44142) between 2300 UTC 28 September and 0000 UTC 29 September, producing a wind change from east at 54 kt to southwest at 37 kt. The buoy’s lowest pres- sure was 974.7 mb.
The estimated intensity of 85 kt at landfall is primar- ily based on a report from McNab’s Island in Halifax Harbor. An anemometer at this location reported a 2-min wind of 81 kt and is elevated 10 m above the surface. In addition, there was an oil rig in Halifax Har- bor whose instrument, at an elevation of 62 m, failed at 99 kt. Radar observations from Halifax indicate that the eye diameter at landfall was 18 n mi. Table 6 lists a selection of surface observations from Canada associ- ated with Juan.
3) CASUALTIES AND DAMAGES
Hurricane Juan made landfall in Nova Scotia as one of most powerful and damaging hurricanes to ever af- fect Canada. The last time that the city of Halifax was hit by the eyewall of a hurricane was 22 August 1893. There were two direct deaths associated with Juan due to falling trees. In addition, three indirect deaths occurred in a house fire speculated to have been started by candles during power outages. Halifax Harbor re- corded an all-time record water level of 1.5 m above the normal tide levels, which resulted in extensive flooding