North Cape Charlottetown East Point
29/0800 29/0700 29/0700
989.6 991.2 1000.8
Iles de la Madeleine
Shearwater McNabs’s Island Halifax International Airport Beaver Island Lunenburg Caribou Point Confederation Bridge Hart Island CHC (West of CYAW)
29/0400 29/0400 29/0400 29/0440 29/0400 29/0546 29/0600 29/0600 29/0310
987.5 982.1 987.4 998.3 990.2 996.3 984.9 1010.1 984.3
Prince Edward Island
TABLE 6. Selected surface observations for Hurricane Juan, 24–29 Sep 2003.
Minimum sea level pressure
Maximum surface wind speed
a b c d
Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed. Reports are 2-min sustained. Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level. Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).
deep convection increased near the center, and satel- lite-based estimates indicate that the cyclone became Tropical Storm Kate. Even though the system contin- ued to experience moderate southwesterly shearing, it strengthened further while turning northward and northeastward. Kate became a hurricane for a brief pe- riod late on 29 September. Then, while weakening, the cyclone took a hairpin turn around the eastern side of a midtropospheric cyclonic circulation. By 1 October, Kate was moving west-southwestward on the northern side of the cyclonic circulation. It also regained hurri- cane strength that day. Kate continued west-southwest- ward, guided by the steering flow between an anticy- clone to its north and the cyclonic circulation centered to its south. There was a relaxation of vertical shear over the area, and as Kate moved over progressively warmer waters, it strengthened significantly. By 2 Oc- tober, a well-defined eye appeared on geostationary satellite images and the hurricane strengthened to its peak wind intensity estimated at 110 kt at 1800 UTC 4 October, while centered about 565 n mi east-southeast of Bermuda (Fig. 6).
Then the western portion of the hurricane’s central dense overcast became partially eroded, signifying a weakening trend. On 5–6 October, the cyclone turned northward, then accelerated north-northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough. Kate weakened below
hurricane strength on 7 October while accelerating north-northeastward over cooler waters. Kate also be- gan losing tropical characteristics when cold-air clouds wrapped around the center over the southern semi- circle, and the remaining central convection weakened and became disorganized. The system completed its transition to extratropical status by 0000 UTC 8 Octo- ber, but remained a formidable extratropical storm for two more days while moving northeastward to eastward across the northern Atlantic. It merged with another extratropical low near Scandinavia on 10 October.
Kate’s estimated peak intensity, 110 kt at 1800 UTC 4 October, is based on a 3-h average objective Dvorak t-number of 5.8.
l. Tropical Storm Larry, 1–6 October
Tropical Storm Larry moved inland from the Bay of Campeche to over southeastern Mexico, causing wide- spread freshwater floods and five deaths.
1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY
A tropical wave moved across the coast of western Africa on 17 September. Under hostile vertical shear, the wave continued uneventfully across the tropical At- lantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. On 27 September, a weak surface low pressure system developed on the wave axis located in the western Caribbean Sea. The