wind speed of 66 kt at 1932 UTC 2 October. The Na- tional Meteorological Service of Mexico reported that heavy rainfall occurred over the states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco, causing localized floods and mud slides. The rainfall total of 161 mm at Villahermosa, Mexico, was the largest official amount reported.
Dvorak satellite estimates of 35–45 kt, are the basis for assigning a wind speed of 40 kt to Mindy at its inception as a tropical cyclone.
Grand Turk reported a sustained wind speed of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1007.1 mb on 11 October as Mindy passed just east of this location.
3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGES
The government of Mexico reported five deaths caused by freshwater floods.
Mindy produced periods of heavy rain over portions of Puerto Rico and eastern Dominican Republic, but there were no reports of damages or casualties.
n. Tropical Storm Nicholas, 13–23 October
Gale warnings were issued for a portion of the Gulf of Mexico coastline for the pre-Larry extratropical low pressure system about 24 h before it became a tropical storm. The government of Mexico issued a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch approximately 61 h in advance of the time of landfall.
m. Tropical Storm Mindy, 10–14 October
Nicholas was a long-lived tropical storm that re- mained over the Atlantic far from land.
Nicholas developed from a tropical wave that moved westward across the coast of Africa on 9 October. A broad low pressure area formed along the wave axis on 10 October, and convection slowly became better orga- nized during the following two days. It is estimated that a tropical depression formed near 0000 UTC 13 Octo- ber about 790 n mi west-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands.
Mindy was a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 kt. Mindy produced heavy rain over por- tions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Mindy originated from a tropical wave that moved from Africa to the Atlantic Ocean on 1 October. The wave axis neared the Mona Passage on 9 October where there was a weakness in the subtropical ridge. On 10 October, in strong southwesterly vertical shear, the wave developed a weak low-level circulation that moved northwestward across the eastern Dominican Republic. Later that day, the circulation, accompanied by rather disorganized convection, moved over the At- lantic Ocean and became Tropical Storm Mindy with 40-kt winds. The center of Mindy passed near the Turks and Caicos Islands on 11 October, but heavy rain and tropical storm–force winds remained east of these is- lands. Mindy weakened to a depression on 12 October and then turned eastward ahead of an approaching short-wave trough in the westerlies. Devoid of deep convection, the remnant swirl of low clouds dissipated early on 14 October while located about 400 n mi south- southwest of Bermuda.
A reconnaissance aircraft flew into the system as it moved away from the Dominican Republic. At first, aircraft wind observations at 1500-ft flight level did not show a closed circulation. But by 2146 UTC 10 Octo- ber, a closed circulation was observed, along with a minimum surface pressure of 1002 mb. These aircraft data are the basis for identifying Mindy as a tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. An aircraft-measured wind speed of 54 kt at a flight level of 457 m, along with subjective
The cyclone formed in an area of southerly to south- westerly vertical wind shear, and it would remain in such an environment through its lifetime. The system moved slowly west-northwestward and gradually strengthened, becoming Tropical Storm Nicholas late on 14 October. It then moved northwestward for three days, reaching a peak intensity of 60 kt on 17 October. A slow and erratic northward motion occurred from 18 to 20 October while Nicholas gradually weakened. The storm turned west-northwestward later on 20 October and westward on 21 October. This was accompanied by slight reintensification. Nicholas again turned north- westward on 22 October and weakening resumed. The cyclone became a depression on 23 October as it turned northward, and it became a nonconvective remnant low on 24 October. The low merged with a cold front later that day, and became extratropical about 505 n mi east- southeast of Bermuda.
After becoming extratropical, the remnant low made a large anticyclonic loop from 24 to 28 October. A sec- ond anticyclonic loop took place on 29–31 October, which was followed by a small cyclonic loop early on 1 November while the Nicholas low separated from the frontal system. The Nicholas remnant was finally ab- sorbed into a nontropical low pressure area late that day about 300 n mi south-southwest of Bermuda. This low, which developed sporadic bursts of central convec- tion, moved westward to the Florida peninsula on 3 November and then northwestward to the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on 5 November.
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates suggested that