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Africa’s future growth prospects differ across four groups of countries

Exports per capita, 2008, $

Size of bubble proportional to GDP

GDP per capita

<$500 $500–1,000 $1,000–2,000

$2,000–5,000 >$5,000

10000

Libya

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Oil exporters

Diversified

Mauritius

Botswana

1000

100

Angola Congo, Rep.

Chad

Algeria

Nigeria

Sierra Leone

Sudan

Mali

DRC

Côte d’Ivoire

Cameroon Ghana

Madagascar

Tanzania

Egypt Namibia

Tunisia

Zambia Senegal

Morocco

South Africa

Kenya Mozambique Uganda

Transition

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Pre-transition

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Economic diversification

Manufacturing and service sector share of GDP, 2008, %

NOTE: We include countries whose 2008 GDP is approximately $10 billion or greater, or whose real GDP growth rate exceeds 7% over 2000–08. We exclude 22 countries that account for 3% of African GDP in 2008.

SOURCE: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; World Bank World Development Indicators; McKinsey Global Institute

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