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5 Fact Sheet (U.S. International Trade Administration, Jan. 27, 2004).

6 New Residential Construction (U.S. Census Bureau, December 2003).

7 NAWLA Bulletin (North American Wholesale Lumber Association, Sept. 22, 2003).

8

See “Surging rubber prices put exporters in risky situation” (Thailand

Department of Export Promotion, Nov. 10, 2003); on the Internet at http: //www.thaitrade.com/exportnewssurging.shtml.

9 See “Asia Has Chipmakers Cheering,” Business Week, Dec. 8, 2003.

10 FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) II, database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

11 See “Dollar’s Decline Has Little Impact on Import Prices,” The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 14, 2004; and “A faded green,” The Economist, Dec. 6, 2003.

12 See “Shipping prices move into the fast lane,” The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 6, 2003.

13

Cotton: World Markets and Trade (U.S. Department of Agriculture,

Foreign Agriculture Service, March 2004). The percent change in Chinese imports was calculated on the basis of the cotton season from August 2002 to August 2003.

14 Oil Crops Yearbook (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Oct. 22, 2003).

15

See “Beyond the bubble,” The Economist, Oct. 9, 2003.

16 Although most transaction prices collected by the Bureau are in U.S. dollars, some prices are reported in a foreign currency, and those prices must be converted into U.S. dollars for use in price index calculations. Currency fluctuations directly affect export prices when foreign-currency- based transactions prices are converted into U.S. dollars. Economic theory suggests that currency fluctuations should indirectly affect both import and export prices over time, depending on several factors, such as the magnitude and duration of the fluctuation, the nature of the industry for which the particular good is being priced, and the general state of the global economy.

17 Product trade data were obtained from the Foreign Trade Statistics Division of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Monthly Labor Review

September 2004

9

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