Understanding uncertainty will allow FTA to better recommend funding among projects with similar costs and benefits, but with significant differences in uncertainties. A better understanding of uncertainties will facilitate a better understanding of why costs and ridership vary from predictions so that better approaches to forecasts can be developed for future projects. Additionally, because a major purpose of planning and project development studies is to disclose information for decision-making, a more explicit representation of uncertainties better informs decision-makers by providing richer information about the likelihood of achieving the project benefits and costs.
1.1.4 New Starts Other Factors
(1) For several years, FTA has required a make-the-case document that includes specific, quantifiable information on the merits of a proposed New Starts project. The make-the-case document is intended to provide FTA and other stakeholders with a coherent, succinct narrative that identifies the motivations and expectations that have led to the proposed project. When based on analytical results of planning and project development, this narrative may provide a persuasive justification of the need and of the expected performance of the proposed project that FTA could incorporate into the presentation of the project to various federal participants in the New Starts funding process.
A strong case for a proposed project will:
Identify the nature, extent, and timing of the problem(s) being addressed, including:
Roadway congestion, including the specific travel markets contributing to and affected by congestion;
The effects of roadway congestion on transit service, performance, and competitiveness;
Federal Transit AdministrationPage 9
Guidance on New Starts Policies and ProceduresJuly, 2007