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Contents

ix

Model Three (Base Model: No Costs, No Income Growth but Lower

Interest Rate) ....................................................................................................292 Model Four (Base Model: No Income Growth but With Costs)...........................294 Model Five (Base Model: No Income Growth with Backstop Technology).........297

Dynamic Multi-Period Models .................................................................................299 Dynamic Models with Market Imperfections .........................................................300 Taxing and Bidding Decisions...................................................................................305 Summary .....................................................................................................................309

13 Supply and Cost Curves...............................................................................................313 Introduction ................................................................................................................313 Unit or Levelized Costs of Wind Electricity.............................................................323 Above-Ground Costs for Gas and Oil......................................................................328 Unit Costs with No Decline Rate..............................................................................332 Developing Cost Data ................................................................................................334 Estimating Total Energy Resources...........................................................................336 Summary .....................................................................................................................339

14 Linear Programming, Refining and Energy Transportation..................................343 Introduction ................................................................................................................343 Crude Oil Refining .....................................................................................................344 Linear Programming to Optimize Refinery Profits ................................................352 Energy Transportation ...............................................................................................358 Summary .....................................................................................................................368

15 Energy Futures and Options Markets for Managing Risk......................................371 Introduction ................................................................................................................371 Energy Futures Contracts ..........................................................................................373 Hedging with Energy Futures....................................................................................380 Efficient Market Hypothesis......................................................................................389 Crack and Spark Spreads ...........................................................................................390 Energy Futures Options.............................................................................................393 Valuing Options .........................................................................................................398 Variables that Affect Option Prices...........................................................................409 Option Trading Strategies..........................................................................................409 Energy Swaps...............................................................................................................411 Summary .....................................................................................................................412

16 Energy and Information Technologies......................................................................415 Introduction ................................................................................................................415 Steps of Internet Use ..................................................................................................423 Optimization Subject to Constraints........................................................................435 Management Styles.....................................................................................................440 Information and Mission...........................................................................................442 Transaction Costs........................................................................................................444 Changes Wrought by the Information Revolution .................................................445 Summary .....................................................................................................................447

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