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20 / JANUARY 2005

SEMICONDUCTOR TIMES

Market Research

North American-based manufac- turers of semiconductor equip- ment posted $1.35 billion in orders in November 2004 and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.00, according to SEMI. The three-month average of world- wide bookings in November 2004 was $1.35 billion, 2% below the re- vised October 2004 level of $1.37 billion and 46% above the $923 mil- lion in orders posted in November 2003. The three-month average of worldwide billings in November 2004 was $1.34 billion, 6% below the revised October 2004 level and 53% above the November 2003 billings level of $876 million. Total orders for semiconductor equipment have de- clined about 16% from the peak ob- served in June of this year, though they remain well above levels report- ed one year ago. www.semi.org

Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending is on pace to in- crease 61% in 2004, but the spending in 2005 is projected to decline 15% in 2005, according to Gartner. All ma- jor segments of the capital equipment market are forecast to decline in 2005 except for the automated test equip- ment market, which is expected to grow 3% in 2005 and then decline by 30% in 2006.

The packaging and assembly equip- ment market will experience a 22% decline in 2005, with revenue of ap- proximately $3.5 billion. Positive growth will be limited to packaging lithography and flip-chip bonder tooling. Packaging utilization rates will likely bottom out in 2H’05, giv- ing way to a pickup in orders by the end of the year or very early in 2006. www.gartner.com

The worldwide VoIP semiconduc- tor market will reach $1.7 billion by 2008, with a 48% CAGR for 2003-2008, according to IDC. www.idc.com

Three factors will conspire to put progress in RFID implementation on ice for the immediate future, ac- cording to ABI Research. The first is the conflict around Intermec’s IP claims to parts of the EPCglobal Generation 2 specification. The sec- ond is difference of opinion between EPCglobal and the International Or- ganization for Standardization (ISO) around the part of the proposed spec- ification dealing with the numbering systems RFID tags relate to. Finally, many pre-standard products were sold on the promise that they are firmware-upgradeable to Generation 2; however, that often means up-

gradeable only to single or multi-unit use, not to the ‘dense’configuration, which is the only one that really mat- ters. www.abiresearch.com

VLSI Research has completed the updates of semiconductor equip- ment market share for 1H’04. Equipment revenues were up 63% from 1H’03. All three segments – Wafer Process, Test and Related Sys- tems and Assembly – showed more than 60% growth. The best perform- ing segment was assembly equip- ment, with a 70.9% increase. www.vlsiresearch.com

Applied Materials

45%

Novellus

10%

Tokyo Electron

10%

1H 2004 Chip Equipment Market Share and Market Size Summary

Deposition

$4,175M

Wafer Exposure Equip. ASML

Canon Nikon

$3,029 40%

30% 30%

Process Diagnostics KLA-Tencor Hitachi High-Tech. Applied Materials

$1,999 35% 15% 10%

Dry Etch Tokyo Electron Lam Research Applied Materials

$1,689M 35% 25% 20%

Semi. Capital Spending

29.7 46.2

40.2

40.6

Growth

7.5%

55.6%

-12.8%

0.8%

Capital Equipment

22.8

36.8

31.2

31.1

Growth

10.3%

61.3%

-15.3%

-0.2%

Wafer Fab Equip.

16.7

27.8

23.0

23.7

Growth

3.5%

65.8%

-17.3%

3.4%

Packaging & Asm. Equip.

3.1

4.5

3.5

4.1

Growth

30.5%

46.6%

-22.3%

16.7%

Automated Test Equipment

3.0

4.6

4.7

3.3

Growth

39.4%

51.7%

3.3%

-30.2%

Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Eq

2003

2004

Source: Gartner Dataquest (December 2004)

2007

2008

47.2

64.9

16.2%

37.7%

37.8

51.8

21.4%

37.1%

28.3

39.5

19.0%

39.9%

5.8

6.9

41.3%

20.2%

3.8

5.3

14.4%

41.4%

uipment Spending

2005

2006

Forecasts ($B)

Wet Processing Dainippon Screen SEZ AG Tokyo Electron

$1,071M 40% 10% 10%

Ion Implanters Varian Axcelis Applied Materials

$626M 30% 25% 20%

CMP Equipment Applied Materials EBARA

$589M 60% 30%

Novellus

5%

Copyright Pinestream Communications, Inc. 52 Pine Street, Weston, Massachusetts 02493 USA Tel 781.647.8800 Fax 781.647.8825 www.pinestream.com info@pinestream.com

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