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Report to the Nation, 19752004/Espey et al.

2127

TABLE 3 U.S. Death Rate Trends With Joinpoint Analyses for 1975–2004 for the Top 15 Cancers, by Sex, for All Races

Joinpoint analyses (1975–2004)a

Trend 1

Trend 2

Trend 3

Trend 4

Sex/cancer site or type

Years

APCc

Years

APCc

Years

APCc

Years

APCc

All sites Both sexes Males Females Top 15 cancers for malesb Lung and bronchus Prostate Colon and rectum Pancreas Leukemia Non-Hodgkin lymphoma Esophagus Urinary bladder Liver and intrahepatic bile duct Kidney and renal pelvis Stomach Brain and other nervous system Myeloma Oral cavity and pharynx Melanoma of the skin Top 15 cancers for femalesb Lung and bronchus Breast Colon and rectum Pancreas Ovary Non-Hodgkin lymphoma Leukemia Corpus and uterus, NOS Brain and other nervous system Myeloma Liver and intrahepatic bile duct Stomach Kidney and renal pelvis Cervix uteri Urinary bladder

0.5 0.9 0.6

d d d

1.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 2.3 4.4 1.5d 0.8 2.2d

d d

d d d d d d d d

6.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 1.2 2.2 0.8 1.5 0.9 1.5 0.8 2.8 1.3 4.3 1.7

d d d d d d

d d d d d d d d

1975–1990 1975–1980 1975–1990

1975–1982 1975–1987 1975–1979 1975–1986 1975–1995 1975–1981 1975–1985 1975–1983 1975–1985 1975–1992 1975–1987 1975–1977 1975–1994 1975–1980 1975–1990

1975–1982 1975–1990 1975–1984 1975–1984 1975–1982 1975–1995 1975–1980 1975–1992 1975–1992 1975–1993 1975–1987 1975–1987 1975–1992 1975–1982 1975–1986

1.1

d

1.5

d

0.8

d

1990–1993

0.3

1993–2002

1980–1992

0.3d

1992–2002

1990–1994

0.2

1994–2002

2.1

d

2.6

d

1.8

d

2002–2004 2002–2004 2002–2004

1982–1990 1987–1991 1979–1987 1986–2004 1995–2004 1981–1990 1985–1994 1983–1987 1985–1995 1992–2004 1987–1991 1977–1982 1994–2004 1980–2004 1990–2004

0.5 3.0

  • 0.6

  • 0.2

  • 0.8

3.0 1.2

  • 2.7

3.8

  • 0.3

  • 0.9

  • 0.3

  • 1.1

  • 2.2

0.0

d d d d d d d d d d

d d

1990–1994

1.3d

1991–1994

0.5

1987–2002

1.9d

1990–1997 1994–2004 1987–1993 1995–2004

    • 1.6

      d

    • 0.4

      d

0.1 1.8d

3.5

d

1.3

d

1991–2004 1982–1991

2.0

d

4.1

d

4.9

d

1994–2004 1994–2004 2002–2004

1997–2004

3.0d

1993–2004

0.6d

1991–2004

0.9d

1982–1990

4.2

d

1990–2004

2.2

d

1984–2002

1.8

d

1984–2004

0.1

1982–1992

0.3

1995–1998

0.3

1980–2001

0.4d

1992–2004

0.0

1992–2004

1.0d

1993–2001

0.4

1987–1995

3.8d

1987–1990

0.5

1992–2004

0.5

d

1982–1996

1.6

d

1986–2004

0.4

d

1990–1995

2002–2004

1992–1998 1998–2004 2001–2004

2001–2004 1995–2001 1990–2004

1996–2004

1995–2004

0.2d

1998–2004

0.2

2001–2004

2.6d

    • 1.7

      d

      • 4.5d

  • 2.4d

0.3

  • 2.6d

  • 3.7d

1.1

d

3.8

d

2.4

d

Source: National Center for Health Statistics public-use data file for the total U.S. APC indicates annual percent change; NOS, not otherwise specified. Joinpoint analyses with up to 3 joinpoints are based on rates per 100,000 persons and were age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population (19 age groups, Census p25–1130; Jointpoint [JP] Regression Pro- gram, Version 3.0; National Cancer Institute, April, 2005). The top 15 cancers were selected based on the sex-specific, age-adjusted incidence rates for 2000–2004 for all races combined and are listed in rank order. APC is based on rates that were age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population (19 age groups; Census, p25–1130). APC is statistically significantly different from zero (2-sided P <.05). a b c d

cancer ranked fifth for AI/AN women. The rank- ing of cancers beyond the top 5 varied by race/eth- nicity.

Cancer incidence trends for women for all race/ ethnicities combined were stable from 1995 through 2004. Although breast cancer rates for all races com- bined from 1995 through 2004 appeared stable, the

use of joinpoint methods revealed that the trend did change in 2001, with a statistically significant decline of 3.4% per year from 2001 through 2004 (data not shown), comparable to the long-term trend results based on SEER data. Hispanic women experienced a decrease in breast cancer incidence rates from 1995 through 2004, and rates for AI/AN women were

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