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Figure 1-1:  Fuel-Cycle Emission Source

Table 1-2:  Scenarios and Timing for Fuel Production and Distribution

Scenario

Year

Description

1

1996

Current emissions.  Equipment meets prevailing standards.  Refinery emissions based on 1997 SCAQMD inventory.

2

2010

Equipment meets standards applicable in year 2010.  Refinery emissions adjusted from 1990 inventory for local rules.  Emissions consistent with ARB factors for fuel distribution.  Currently available fuel production and distribution processes.

3

2010

Same as Scenario 2.  Lower assumptions on distribution emissions.  New alternative fuel production facilities and technologies.  Lower fuel spillage.  Assumes more CO2-free feedstocks.

Assumptions were made regarding which technologies represent current and future fuel production.  Scenario 1 represents the current situation (1996) and Scenarios 2 and 3 represent a range of emission estimates for the year 2010.  The assumptions for each scenario correspond to parameters discussed in Section 3.  Advanced vehicle fueling systems that minimize refueling emissions were assumed for vehicles that meet SULEV requirements.  The project focuses on fuels that are close to meeting the SULEV standards.   Refueling emissions are also calculated.

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