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under both scenarios. Additionally, 311MW of renewable projects with Public Interest Surcharge support are included.

Resource Plan 2

This resource plan is centered on the possibility that all the nuclear units in California (Diablo Canyon and San Onofre) may shut down by 2010.  The retirement of Diablo Canyon is only part of the difference between this plan and the Scenario 1 resource plan.  This Scenario 2 resource plan also includes a greater number of generation facilities that are assumed retired in California and in most cases replaced with new, more efficient capacity (at the same site).  However, the net number of capacity additions under Scenario 2 is 857 MW less in 2010 than the Scenario 1 resource plan. Furthermore, the non-nuclear resource additions for the South Coast Air Basin area include an assumption that RECLAIM trading credit strategies and site/land limitations will restrict total allowable emissions and facility size.

Marginal emission results for the entire WSCC are presented by each air basin within California and for areas outside of California. Utilizing the Multisym™ model we are able to provide estimates of incremental emissions from power plants located within California. However, the emissions for regions outside of California are an estimated emission factor.  These estimated emission factors depend on the fuel mix of the incremental energy produced in each area outside of California.  Presently, CEC has not compiled adequate information on emissions factors for all resources located outside of California to provide similar Multisym™ results.

It should be noted that adding about 1,000 GWhs of energy demand throughout California in 2010 has a very small effect on the incremental results for the entire WSCC region under either scenario.  In addition, existing steam boilers in the are assumed to be retrofit by 2010 with additional emission control equipment in both resource plans.  Existing generation outside of the SoCAB is not assumed to be retrofit with additional emission control equipment.

4.8.1  Power Generation Emissions

In the Scenario 1 Multisym™ results, the majority of incremental energy generated in California is from new gas-fired generation and the larger existing gas-fired power plants.  The incremental emission factors shown in Table 4-22 for air basins in California are a mix of new combined cycle technologies and existing gas-fired steam boiler type power plants.  Areas outside of California provide incremental energy from a mix of gas-fired (73 percent) and coal-fired generation (27 percent).  The majority of this imported energy is gas-fired; however, the majority of these incremental emissions outside of California are from the coal-fired generation.

Scenario 2 Multisym™ results are similar to those using the Scenario 1 capacity expansion plan.  The majority of incremental energy generated in California is from new gas-fired generation and the larger existing gas-fired power plants.  However, in this


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