X hits on this document

93 views

0 shares

0 downloads

0 comments

26 / 35

Forecasting Toolkit

Diagnostic tools to test the health of your process Forecast Bias Indicator

What

Gives you rating of th

Forecast Run Indicator

in a set of f into accoun

How

Works ou the avera

What it

Gives you a si test for identify

Forecast Error Ratio

Single point forecasts

fo re casts

with a pro pr o duc i n g

How used?

To quickly

set of fore (complian

Policy).

forecast proce exhibiting bias.

How it

Sets out the nu con secu tive f o

the same sign

indicative of th bias.

How m used?

As a „rule of th

identifying that process is goin

What it

Gives you a si test for forecas

Forecast Quality Indicator

What it does

What it does it look like?

How it

Gives you an objective rating of the quality of a

Sets out the m positive/negati

forecast process.

errors consiste

unbiased forec level of confide

How it does it

7

5

How mi used?

As a „rule of th

identifying fore which are bias

Comparing the spread of forecast data with the spread

of actual data. The greater

the spread of the forecast the poorer the forecast process.

How might it be used?

f-Score

3

Goog Low level of volatility

Poor Moderate level of voatility

Poor Moderate level of volatility

To give a fuller measure of

1

forecast performance. To identify where the forecast

process (as opposed to behaviours around forecasts)

4

8

12

16

20 Sample Size

24

28

32

needs to be improved.

Range Forecast Error Indicator

What it does

Gives objective guidelines for Range Forecast

Range Forecast Quality Indicator

accuracy.

What it does

What it does it look like?

How it does it

Works out what percentag outcomes should fall withi

the middle 50% of the ran

Gives you an objective rating of the quality of a

Range Forecasting process by taking into account the

1.00

0.95

Probable Wide Range

Range forecasts

forecast if the Range Forecast is to be conside

sou nd .

How might it used?

To give an early warning

failures in the Range Forecasting process.

sample size

How it does it

Works out the probability of a sample of Range Forecasts

being consistent with a

process capable of meeting the target rate (90%)

How might it be used?

Success Rate

0.90

0.85

0.80

0.75

0.70

0.65

0.60

Probably Ok

Poor

Significantly Poor

To quickly identify whether the

Range Success Rate is acce pt abl e

0.55

4

8

12

16

20 Sample Size

24

28

32

36

36

Tools to help build forecasts

Range Forecasting Methodology

What it does

Gives you.

Statistical Forecasting Methodology

What it does

What it does it look like?

How it does it

Works out.

Creates a statistically based

forecast - using a robust Excel based methodology

Qua te ly Overhead

R y=1.20L(x)+3.75 2 = 0 . 4 3

How it does it

12.0

How might it be sed?

  • o

    qu

Uses Mathematical and

Statistic e un

s to r

10.0

.0

i

4.0

wh

ailed

s

tr

or

re

cr

ey

e

r en

d et

cas

n pr

)

s

To

„baselineā€Ÿ for

2.0

0.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16 1718 19 2021 22 2324 25 2627 28 2930 31 3233 34 3536 Qua ter (Code )

Quartery ctul

4-MA LL

UL

Log. (4-M )

Tools to help you manage your process Forecast Bias Performance Guide

What it does

Gives you the ability to s targets for forecast bias

Forecast Error Chart

given a desired level of confidence

How it does i

An Excel tool which, taki

into account the historica volatility of forecasts erro

works out the range of

What it does

Gives you a set of ranges (based on historic forecast

accuracy) which represent limits within which unbiase

Forecast Credibility Corridor

acceptable values for ne for a set sample size and

forecasts should fall

What it does

What it does it look like?

specified degree of con fi de nce .

How might it used?

To set realistic and reas ta rg ets.

How it does it

Based on historic forecast error works out the ranges

within which 90% of

individuals forecasts shoul fall if there is no bias

How might it b

Gives you a set of ranges (based on historic trends)

within which your forecast should fall - with a defined

set of probabilities

How it does it

Takes a Moving Annual Total and works out typical

10.0

5.0

ig y i i ic

ozenFood- ot y oer 1997-2005

Op ti mi sti c

bi

rept into your

f

rocess. To test

bi

wh et her

ecasts you receiv

rates of change for this

m ar ket/ bu sin ess o ver di ff er en t h or izo ns

How might it be used?

r o er- I cre s / ecre se

0.0

  • -

    5.0

  • -

    10.0

ig y esi i ic

Li ke ly

y=0.0x-0.06

Pessimistic

To test the credibility of

forecasts you produce To test the credibility (and

123

4

5

6

7

89 oso d

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

potential bias) of forecasts you receive

To focus attention on the

significant elements of fo re casts

N

68%-CL

99.97%-CL

er

)

Document info
Document views93
Page views93
Page last viewedTue Dec 06 20:11:35 UTC 2016
Pages35
Paragraphs721
Words2618

Comments