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Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 14th July 2004 - page 100 / 216

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339.

JIC judgements on Iraq’s ballistic missile capabilities were reflected fairly in the dossier. The ’45 minute’ issue was, because of the context of the JIC assessment10, run together in the dossier with statements on Iraqi intentions for use of its capabilities. It was also included in the Prime Minister’s Foreword.

340.

Nuclear:

86

10

See the fuller analysis at Chapter 6.

We judge that Iraq does not possess a nuclear weapons capability. . . . Although there is very little intelligence,we continue to judge that Iraq is pursuing a nuclear weapons programme.

Iraq continues to work on developing nuclear weapons,in breach of its ob ligations under the Non-Proliferation Tr eaty and in breach of UNSCR 687.

[15 March]

[Chapter 3, paragraph 1]

Quotations from JIC Assessments

Quotations from the dossier

Iraq’s military forces are able to use chemical and biological weapons,with command, control and logistical arrangements in place. The Iraqi military are able to deploy these weapons within 45 minutes of a decision to do so.

[Chapter 3, paragraph 1]

. . . intelligence indicates that as part of Iraq’s military planning Saddam is willing to use chemical and biological weapons,including against his own Shia population. Intelligence indicates that the Iraqi military are able to deploy chemical or biological weapons within 45 minutes of an order to do so.

[Chapter 3, paragraph 5]

We have an unclear picture of the current In mid-2001 the JIC assessed that Iraq had status of Iraq’s nuclear programme. There is continued its nuclear research after 1998. The intelligence that Iraq continued its nuclear JIC drew attention to intelligence that Iraq had

341.

The dossier did not repeat the JIC’s warning about the limited intelligence available on Iraq’s nuclear weapon programme, but it did make clear separately that Iraq would not be able to develop a nuclear weapon without procuring key equipment and materiel.

Quotations from JIC Assessments

Quotations from the dossier

research after the Gulf War and recalled its recalled

its

nuclear

scientists

to

the

nuclear scientists in 1998.

[Chapter 3, paragraph 17]

[10 May 2001]

programme in 1998.

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