The judgement that Iraq was continuing to produce chemical agent was supported by one new human intelligence report12 received on 30 September.
On Iraq’s biological weapons programme, the JIC concluded in its October assessment that:
We continue to judge . . . that Iraq has an offensive CW programme and intelligence indicates that it has continued to produce chemical agent.
[JIC, 28 October 2002]
We cover JIC assessments on Iraqi possession of plague more fully at Chapter 6. The most significant change in this assessment was in the JIC’s indication to readers of its new judgement that intelligence on mobile biological agent production facilities had been “confirmed”. The greater firmness of the JIC’s judgement in this area was based on the receipt of one intelligence report, from a reliable and established source quoting a new sub-source. That report reinforced the large volume of reports on those facilities received from a single source through a liaison service since April 2000, although our view is that the new report was complementary to rather than confirming those from the liaison service.
On Iraq’s ballistic missile programme, a JIC assessment of December 2002 sustained the judgement it had made over the past two years that Iraq had:. . .
Iraq can weaponise CBW agents into missile warheads,bombs,artillery roc kets and shells.
[JIC, 28 October 2002]
. . . retained up to 20 Al Hussein missiles . . . though their condition is not known . . .
[JIC, 6 December 2002]
We assess that Iraq has continued with an offensive BW programme. Research, development and production is assessed to continue under cover of a number of outwardly legitimate institutes and covert facilities. Confirmed intelligence reveals that transportable BW production facilities have been constructed. Iraq has possibly already made significant quantities of BW agents and intelligence indicates it has continued to produce biological agents. We judge that Iraq is self-sufficient in its BW p r o g r a m m e a n d c u r r e n t l y h a s a v a i l a b l e , e i t h e r f r o m p r e - G u l f W a r s t o c k s o r m o r e recent production,anthrax spores,botulinum toxin,aflatoxin,and possi bly plague
This report was withdrawn when all reporting from this source was withdrawn by SIS in July 2003 as being unreliable. Section 5.9 provides fuller detail.