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Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 14th July 2004 - page 179 / 216





179 / 216


24 September 2002

24 September 2002

9 September 2002

21 August 2002

15 March 2002

that he would use these weapons, as vital to his strategic interests, and in particular his goal of regional domination. And the document discloses that his military planning allows for some of the WMD to be ready within 45 minutes of an order to use them.

I am quite clear that Saddam will go to extreme lengths, indeed has already done so, to hide these weapons and avoid giving them up.

In today's inter-dependent world, a major regional conflict does not stay confined to the region in question. Faced with someone who has shown himself capable of using WMD, I believe the international community has to stand up for itself and ensure its authority is upheld.

The threat posed to international peace and security, when WMD are in the hands of a brutal and aggressive regime like Saddam's, is real. Unless we face up to the threat, not only do we risk undermining the authority of the UN, whose resolutions he defies, but more importantly and in the longer term, we place at risk the lives and prosperity of our own people.

The case I make is that the UN Resolutions demanding he stops his WMD programme are being flouted; that since the inspectors left four years ago he has continued with this programme; that the inspectors must be allowed back in to do their job properly; and that if he refuses, or if he makes it impossible for them to do their job, as he has done in the past, the international community will have to act.

I believe that faced with the

7. These judgements reflect the views of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC). More details on the judgements and on the development of the JIC’s assessments since 1998 are set out in Part 1 of this paper.



CHAPTER 1: The Role of Intelligence (extract)

1. Since UN inspectors were withdrawn from Iraq in 1998, there has been little overt information on Iraq’s chemical, biological, nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. Much of the publicly available information about Iraqi capabilities and intentions is dated. But we also have available a range of secret intelligence about these programmes and Saddam Hussein’s intentions. This comes principally from the United Kingdom’s intelligence and analysis agencies – the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), the Security Service, and the Defence Intelligence Staff (DIS). We also have access to intelligence from close allies.

2. Intelligence rarely offers a complete account of activities which are designed to remain concealed. The nature of Saddam’s regime makes Iraq a difficult target for the intelligence services. Intelligence, however, has provided important insights into Iraqi programmes and Iraqi military thinking. Taken together with what is already known from other sources, this intelligence builds our understanding of Iraq’s capabilities and adds significantly to the analysis already in the public domain. But intelligence sources need to be protected, and this limits the detail that can be made available.

3. Iraq’s capabilities have been regularly reviewed by the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), which has provided advice to the Prime Minister and his senior colleagues on the developing assessment, drawing on all available sources. Part 1 of this paper includes some of the most significant views reached by the JIC between 1999 and 2002.

CHAPTER 2: Iraq’s Programmes, 1971–1998 (extract)

[This historical chapter covers past Iraqi research into chemical and biological warfare; what quantities of agent Iraq had produced by the early 1990s; its use of chemical weapons during the Iran/Iraq war,

conflicts, we judge that:

Iraq currently has available, either from pre Gulf War stocks or more recent production, a number of biological warfare (BW) and chemical warfare (CW) agents and weapons; following a decision to do so, Iraq could produce significant quantities of mustard agent within weeks; significant quantities of the nerve agents sarin and VX within months (and in the case of VX Iraq may have already done so). Production of sarin and VX would be heavily dependent on hidden stocks of precursors, the size of which are unknown; Iraq could produce more biological agents within days. At the time of the Gulf War Iraq had developed the lethal BW agents anthrax, botulinum toxin and aflatoxin. Iraq was also researching a number of other agents including some non-lethal (incapacitating) agents; even if stocks of chemical and biological weapons are limited, they would allow for focused strikes against key military targets or for strategic purposes (such as a strike against Israel or Kuwait); Iraq could deliver CW and BW agents by a variety of means including free fall bombs, airborne sprays, artillery shells, mortar






assess he has retained 12-20 650km range Al Hussein missiles) and the need, in the case of attacking coalition forces in Kuwait, to deploy short range missiles (we assessed in March that at least 50 150km range al-Samoud missiles had been produced; more will have been produced since then) into the ‘no drive zone’. Although a pre- emptive missile attack on Israel would offer many of the same advantages, we judge this would be less likely because it would show Iraq had been lying about its retention of long range missiles prohibited by the UN, providing a justification for US action.

Although we have little intelligence on Iraq’s CBW doctrine, and know little about Iraq’s CBW work since late 1998, we judge it likely that Saddam would order the use of CBW against

the 150km range liquid propellant Al Samoud missile has been extensively flight-tested. Intelligence indicates that Iraq has produced at least 50 Al Samouds, including those test fired, and preparations are underway to deploy some of these to military units. Iraq has reportedly succeeded in developing a number of 200km range variants of Al Samoud, although it is unclear if these are for operational use or research and development for longer-range systems. A small number of transporter-erector- launchers (TELs) have been seen, although others may exist;


the solid propellant Ababil-100 has also been tested, and has reached ranges up to 150km. We judge that this system is likely to become operational as an SRBM within 2 years. It might enter service earlier as an artillery rocket. Intelligence indicates that Iraq has plans to extend the range of the Ababil-100 to 250km.


Immediate missile capability We judge that Iraq has the following missiles available for immediate use: Some Al Samoud (up to 150km) Up to 20 Al Hussein (650km) There are a limited number of launchers available. Both missiles could deliver basic chemical and biological warheads.

We judge Iraq has also retained some 20 Al Hussein missiles (650km range stretched SCUD), the type fired at Israel and Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War. We do not know the location of these missiles or their state of readiness, but judge that the engineering expertise available would


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