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Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 14th July 2004 - page 71 / 216

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Our picture is limited.

a warning expanded in the body of the paper:

Since the departure of United Nations Special Commission for Iraq (UNSCOM),in December 1998,our limited picture of Iraqi chemical and biological warfa re activities has been further reduced.

[JIC, 19 April 2000]

  • 227.

    Nevertheless, it included as the first Key Judgement of the assessment: It is likely that Iraq is continuing to develop its offensive chemical warfare (CW) and biological warfare (BW) capabilities. [JIC, 19 April 2000]

  • 228.

    Underpinning this judgement, it noted that: After the Gulf War,we know that a large proportion of Iraq’s CW capability w as destroyed under UNSCOM supervision. But we assess that some was not destroyed. and that:

Iraq could have hidden dual use precursor chemicals,and production equip ment, since the Gulf War. Using these we continue to assess that,even with UNMOVI C and other UN controls,Iraq could produce mustard agent within weeks of a decis ion to do so. Iraq could produce limited quantities of nerve agent within months of such a decision.

[JIC, 19 April 2000]

229.

The JIC also noted:

. . .continuingIraqiprocurement activities whichcould be associated with a chemical weapons programme . . .

that:

Facilities formerly associated with Iraq’s chemical warfare programme at its Habbaniyah I and II sites are being reconstructed.

and that:

. . . Iraq is restoring its civil chemical production capability,includin g pesticides,at one of its former chemical warfare related facilities. We assess that this would help any revival of its CW programme.

[JIC, 19 April 2000]

230.

In contrast to its warning about the limited amount of intelligence on Iraq’s nuclear weapons programme, the JIC’s assessment in May 2001 noted that it had:

. . .goodintelligenceofIraq’sformerchemicalandbiologicalwarfare(CBW)facilities, their limited reconstruction and civil production. Taken together,this suggests a continuing research and development programme.

[JIC, 10 May 2001]

57

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