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Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 14th July 2004 - page 76 / 216

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On Iraq’s shorter-range missile programmes, the JIC noted that:

We have reliable intelligence of Iraq’s current short range ballistic missile programmes . . . there is a growing body of evidence that Iraq intends to develop missiles well beyond its permitted range of 150km. This would represent a step change in Saddam Hussein’s military capabilities.

that:

. . . [Iraq] appears to have accelerated progress over the past year. This includes:

...

  • -

    work on extending the range of the Al Samoud missile to 200–300km - production could start within the year;

  • -

    work on a further missile engine test stand with the capacity for much larger engines than the Al Samoud,including SCUD . . .

and that:

We assess that within a year Iraq will begin production of Al Samoud and possibly its extended range version. Both could deliver a conventional,chemical o r biological warhead.

[JIC, 10 May 2001]

On Iraq’s long-range missile programmes, the JIC cautioned that:

We have intelligence which is less clear on longer term missile objectives.

but reported on:

. . . tests on pairs of solid propellant motor cases. These are at a very early stage of development,but if combined in a missile,they could have a range of up to 20 00km with a 500kg payload. Developed individually into missiles,using the sam e payload, they could achieve a range of between 700–1200km.

although:

We do not know enough about the possible 2000 km range missile to judge a timescale for its completion.

[JIC, 10 May 2001]

We have examined the intelligence to support these statements and consider the JIC’s judgements to be well-founded and properly expressed.

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