Will, MacPherson / ECONOMY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
strong employment growth raises serious questions regarding the generalizability of nationally calibrated export-employment multipliers. If local capacity-utilization rates are low, then export expansion can take place without any significant job creation. On the flip side of the coin, rising import competition may not necessarily kill very many jobs either. Over the long term, in fact, it is possible that import competition might spur the types of innovations that are required to sustain or expand jobs in import-threatened sectors. The task remains to develop an impact assessment meth- odology (survey-based or econometric) that can link a region’s specific industry and trade structure to locally estimated elasticity conditions across several variables. Although this is a tall order in terms of data assembly and model calibration, the prescription is not impossible to fill.
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