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    Exploratory Workshop on the Social Impacts of Robotics

PAINE WEBBER MITCHELL HUTCHINS

ROBOTICS AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO THE AUTOMATED FACTORY

Eli S. Lustgarten

Table of Contents

I.

INTRODUCTION

II.

OVERVIEW:

REDISCOVERING

THE

FACTORY

1

III .

AN ANALYSIS OF ROBOT USE

5

What Exactly Is A Robot?

Who Would Use Robots: Robot Demand Expected

How and Why To Be Sensitive

To

Economic

Cycles

5 6 8

IV.

AN ANALYSIS OF ROBOT MANUFACTURING

9

Multisector

Industry

To Evolve In

The 1980s

Longer-Term

Trends:

Automation

Companies Will

Robot

Production:

Generalists

With

A

Niche

For

R&D:

A Crucial Investment

Learning

Curve

Pricing

Key To

Industry

Growth

Likely Be Large Specialists

9 11 12 12 12

v.

ROBOT INTRODUCTION A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MANUFACTURING OPERATIONS

14

VI.

CAPITAL:

KEY

TO

SUCCESS

OF

BOTH

PRODUCERS

AND

USERS

15

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.

Machine Tools In Use Time Losses In Manufacturing Geographic Distribution of Robots 1979 Estimated Unit Robot Shipments Japanese Market --Production Share of Industrial Robots, By Type Value Of 1979 Robot Shipments To Users In Japan Possible GM Robot Base (Cumulative) Median Average Expected Payback Period Production of Japanese Industrial Robots Structure of the Minicomputer Industry In 1970 Estimated U.S. Robot Sales By Manufacturer Users Will Seek More Help For Robot Integration (Median Estimate) Strategic Purchases By Large Companies In the Field Of Automation Rapid Robot Industry Growth Projected Sources of Future Robotic Technical Personnel

Fig. 1.

characteristics of Manufacturing

Index of Tables

3 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 14 15

4

This

report was prepared for the Robotics Workshop of the Congressional

Office of

Technology Assessment held in Washington,

D.C. on July 31,

1981.

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