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App. B—Commissioned Background Papers

Basic Analysis

TO

ROBOTICS AND ITS RELATIONSHIP

THE AUTOMATED

FACTORY

Paine Webber Mitchell Hutchins Inc.

INTRODUCTION

More attractive technology, the end of the baby boom, the need to modernize an aging manufacturing base and to reduce the use of labor more expensive than most o f our U.S.

international

competition,

automated

factories.

One

and a more favorable tax structure will lead product, the robot, is likely to become a key

to increasingly building block

in the penetration this report is to interrelationship

of factory’ automation into the manufacturing world.

provide a framework for analyzing the

robot

industry

with

U.S.

manufacturing

techniques.

The purpose and its

of

This report is divided into several sections: . An overivew of the general status of U.S. manufacturing and the potential need for robots.

An analysis of current and potential uses of robots.

An analysis, of the robot

from the robot producers’ point of view, of the likely evolution market and key competitive factors.

.

A discussion

of the impact of robots on manufacturing operations.

A discussion availability

from both the producers and users’ point of view of capital and potential financial incentive programs which could foster the

development of the robot industry.

OVERVIEW: REDISCOVERING THE FACTORY

nOlnfOfmallOrI Conla,nadnere,n

achsom

&

CIJrtIs Incorporated

Omllon ,muo,ng an onsultant Ioacomoany bebng

inflation, exploding energy prices and gyrating money markets. These factors contributed to a decade of sluggish economic growth, weak research and development spending and economic policies that favored consumption over investment, resulting real capital spending that significantly trailed the strong outlays of the 1960s.

in The

1.5% productivity growth during 1973-79 was half our historic average, with some economists suggesting that labor may have been the only factor in the classical equation that contributed more to productivity growth since 1973 than it did from

1948.

naSbOQn ObtalnOd Blyln

mav

t,m. IO ttme

as ~

The automated factory has been a dream of the manufacturing world.

The production

in an exceptionally period of rapidly increasing

frOm SOurC4S W0b0(6@S10h f81taOlC

but ,lSaCCuraCy

,S

Patne Webbef M!lcheil HulCh(ns Inc

Weobef Incofporaled a(fll,aled comoan,es andlor If?eof olf,cer~ dtreclors

or SIOChholders

Pa,ne Web~f

may at \,mes h~ve ~

or trom cuslomefs

productivity

(38%),

capital

investment

second

(25%),

with

labor

accounting

for

only

14%

of the changes.

However, U.S.

difficult

economic

environment

business has had to operate during most of the 1970s, a

July 31,

  • -

    1981 --

    • ndlor

  • fblfaQeof reported

Ool,on Qos!t(on

n IhSi SbCultllOs

UOOn Cogyr,gnt

heresn

may

of OUY !nem

byPa!ne tieOOer U,!cne/l Hufch!ns nc allfqh(s

manager, always pressured to improve output, has been influenced by classical economists who ranked technological advancement as the most important determinant

of

(312) 580-8213 . .

  • .

  • ndlot

from

  • ct

  • ——----

    Eli

sell

not guaranteed

employees These companies

Lustgarten

  • nd

10

reserved

S.

.

Eastman

Paine

1981

described

  • 119

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