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App. B—Commissioned Background Papers

  • ‚óŹ

    125

Mitchell Hutchins Inc.

Table 5: Japanese Production Share of Industrial Robots, by Type Market

%

Units

Manipulators and Sequential Robots

89%

Teaching Playback Robots

5

N.C. Robots

1

Intelligent Robots

5

Source: J.I.R.A.

%Value 70%

17

4 9

Table

6:

Value

of

1979

Robot

Shipments

to

Users

in

Japan

Automobile Industry Electrical Machinery Plastic Molding Metal Products Precision Machining

38.4% 17.5 10.8 8.1

& Metal Working Iron & Steel Other

Total

6.0 4.2 15.0 100.0

Source:

J.I.R.A.

Whether or not the auto industry was the dominant purchaser of robots in the U.S. in the 1970s is a moot point; it clearly will be the driving force for the industry in the 1980s. It’s no longer a secret that General Motors has projected an installed base of robots in its

facilities as high as

14,000 by 1990.

Table

7:

Possible

GM

Robot

Base

(Cumulative)

1978

1979

1980

1984

1986

1988

1990

Cumulative

160

230

302

3,500

6,500

10,000

14,000

Source:

GM.

As the robotics market is expected to be dominated by the automotive and other heavy manu- facturing segments, at least during the first half of the 1980s, the principal applications

are unlikely to vary significantly from the current uses over the near-term:

Spot welding, which we estimate to account for 35-40% of total robot industry sales.

Material handling, including machine loading and unloading.

Die casting, investment casting,

stamping,

forging and press loading.

Paint spraying and finishing.

.

Palletizing.

.

Assembly.

Toward the middle of the 1980s, arc welding systems should the most important welding sector as demand for spot welders of the decade, it is likely for arc welders, machine loading

begin to grow rapidly and become plateaus. During the latter part and unloading and assembly robots

to be the primary areas of growth,

with assembly alone perhaps representing 35-40% of the total

and perhaps nearly half of the annual growth.

The traditional rationale as to why industry purchased robots was that they offer a means to

increase productivity and free workers from by the Society of Manufacturing Engineers

boring and unsafe tasks. (SME) indicates that there

A are

recent Delphi Survey two key factors as

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