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App. B—Commissioned Background Papers

Daiwa Securities America Inc.

One Liberty Plaza, New York, New York 10006

(212) 732-6600

July 28, 1981

Paul Aron Report (#25) :

ROBOTS REVISITED : ONE YEAR LATER

Introduction:

Statistics and Definitions

Just about one year ago I issued the Paul Aron Report #22 “Robotics

in Japan” which aroused considerable interest as comprehensive study by an American analyst.

the first serious and In a note to that

Report, I wrote:

“Of course, one could continue to search for additional

data which would probably tensive American discussion

improve the presentation. In view of the of productivity and the spate of articles

ex- on

robots, excellent though timeliness demanded the

insufficiently attentive to Japan publication of what we know now.

experience, Thus, as with

all learning, the

haustive”.

This

report must be considered tentative and preliminary not ex- note could well be descriptive of this current report. This

report is an update but to material from the previous

facilitate reading. I have included the relevant

report.

(Report

  • #

    22

is

still

available

on

request)

.

In reexamining the conclusions of my earlier effort, viewed at the time by some as overly optimistic, I find that the report, w hile basically

correct, understated the industry is growing at a The original forecast by

tempo of ‘growth. faster pace than

The Japanese industrial robot anyone had previously estimated.

the

Japan

Industrial

Robot

Industry

Association

(JIRA) for 1979 shipments was Y 36 billion (about $180 million); actual shipments amounted to Y 42.4 billion, exceeding the original estimate by 17. 8%. JIRA had initially estimated shipments for 1980 at Y 43 billion; later it revised the forecast upwards by 39. 5% to Y 65 billion. In actuality, ship- ments were Y 78.4 billion (about $ 392 million) fully 82.3% above the original

estimate. JIRA billion (about $2.5 billion).

is now estimating shipments for 1981 in $ 500 million) and for 1985 approximately

excess of = 100 Y 500 billion (about

For 1990 the current “unofficial” estimate

is = 1 trillion

(about

$5

billion).

timate

in

early 1980

These estimates of = 195 billion

should be compared with the for 1985 which many critics

initial JIRA argued could

es-

not be achieved until 1990. Even JIRA has forecasts as late in 1980 it was estimating for 1985 and Y= 450- 600 billion for 1990.

difficulty keeping shipments of Y 240-

up with the 300 billion

  • ‚óŹ

    27

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