App. B—Commissioned Background Papers
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
One Liberty Plaza, New York, New York 10006
July 28, 1981
Paul Aron Report (#25) :
ROBOTS REVISITED : ONE YEAR LATER
Statistics and Definitions
Just about one year ago I issued the Paul Aron Report #22 “Robotics
in Japan” which aroused considerable interest as comprehensive study by an American analyst.
the first serious and In a note to that
Report, I wrote:
“Of course, one could continue to search for additional
data which would probably tensive American discussion
improve the presentation. In view of the of productivity and the spate of articles
robots, excellent though timeliness demanded the
insufficiently attentive to Japan publication of what we know now.
experience, Thus, as with
all learning, the
report must be considered tentative and preliminary not ex- note could well be descriptive of this current report. This
report is an update but to material from the previous
facilitate reading. I have included the relevant
In reexamining the conclusions of my earlier effort, viewed at the time by some as overly optimistic, I find that the report, w hile basically
correct, understated the industry is growing at a The original forecast by
tempo of ‘growth. faster pace than
The Japanese industrial robot anyone had previously estimated.
(JIRA) for 1979 shipments was Y 36 billion (about $180 million); actual shipments amounted to Y 42.4 billion, exceeding the original estimate by 17. 8%. JIRA had initially estimated shipments for 1980 at Y 43 billion; later it revised the forecast upwards by 39. 5% to Y 65 billion. In actuality, ship- ments were Y 78.4 billion (about $ 392 million) fully 82.3% above the original
estimate. JIRA billion (about $2.5 billion).
is now estimating shipments for 1981 in $ 500 million) and for 1985 approximately
excess of = 100 Y 500 billion (about
For 1990 the current “unofficial” estimate
is = 1 trillion
These estimates of = 195 billion
should be compared with the for 1985 which many critics
initial JIRA argued could
not be achieved until 1990. Even JIRA has forecasts as late in 1980 it was estimating for 1985 and Y= 450- 600 billion for 1990.
difficulty keeping shipments of Y 240-
up with the 300 billion