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App. B—Commissioned Background Papers

Daiwa Securities America Inc.

Page -7-

In 1980 the United States probably placed third in the unit pro- duction of industrial robots--the Soviet Union produced an estimated 2,000- 3,000 industrial robots. Soviet production, however, tends to concentrate on the less sophisticated robots. Somehow, Americans seem to have taken comfort with an estimate published in Time in December 1980, of 25 robots in the Soviet Union (at the very moment that the Soviet Union was producing about 70 different robot models) . Incidentally, Soviet

robotics began even later than Japan --in 1971-72 the first three Soviet

robots were produced.

1961--a

Unimate

based

on

The United States produced its

a

patent

originally

issued

in

first 1954.

robot in It was only

in 1967 that Tokyo Machinery Trading Versatran robot, then produced

Co. by

started to import and sell AMF, Inc. In November,

a 1968,

Heavy Industries concluded a technology license agreement with Unimation and

in 1969 began to produce least an eight year lead Union.

robots in over Japan

Japan.

and

a

Thus, the U.S. enjoyed at

ten

year

lead

over

the

Soviet

What does the future hold?--My estimates or better “guesstimates” for Japan is necessarily very tentative.

Manual Manipulator

1,500

6,000

12,000

Fixed Sequence

15,000

30,000

45,000

Variable Sequence

1,800

14,000

18,650

Playback

900

6,500

13,000

NC Robot

150

1,400

2,800

Intelligent

350

10,000

23,000

Total

19,700

67,900

114,450

TABLE 7

Japanese Industrial Robot Demand Forecast--Paul Aron In Units

1980 (E)

1985 (E)

1990 (E)

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